Minerwa Tahir & Shehzad Arshad
On February 8, Pakistan is set to have a general election. While this would be the third time in a row that Pakistanis will vote for a civilian government uninterrupted by military dictatorships, the limits of this democratic structure are hard to miss. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is today faced with the same predicament as that of Nawaz Sharif in the 2018 election. The two seem to have swapped places in the roleplay that all mainstream political parties take turns in before the country’s mighty military.
Election at a crucial juncture
Internally, Pakistan is confronted with severe inflation and unemployment, with no end in sight to its bondage to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Due to its high interest rate, businesses have threatened closures. The interim government has also finalised the privatisation and sale of the national airline as part of the IMF deal, with a promise from the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) to fast-track the process after coming to power. Inflation is so high that people have committed suicide or killed their own wives and children. On January 31, the caretaker government increased the price of petrol by another Rs13.55 per litre for the next fortnight. The price of petrol is now Rs272.89 per litre compared to Rs95 in 2018. The per unit price of electricity for households has risen from 12 rupees in 2018 to 30 rupees. Gas prices have more than doubled. The dollar was worth Rs123 in August 2018. Today it stands at Rs279. Meanwhile, national oppression has pushed various communities to take to the streets against the suffering thrust on them by the murderous capitalist system. Baloch women have kickstarted a massive campaign against what they describe as state abductions and extrajudicial killings of Baloch men and youth. In Gilgit-Baltistan, a mass movement against the removal of wheat flour subsidy has been underway while a similar vigour is present in Pakistan-administered Kashmir with millions of people refusing to pay their electricity bills. A large number of people have been protesting for three months in Chaman, a small town bordering Afghanistan, against discriminatory laws against the local Pashtun population.
Externally, Pakistan is surrounded by neighbours like Afghanistan, India and Iran, with whom its relations range from open animosity to rockiness. The recent escalations with Iran, as well as the mass deportations of Afghan refugees, brought Pakistan into international limelight. China, the supposed friend of Pakistan, often acts as the mediator when tensions escalate in the region. It is also the imperialist power whose sphere of influence over Pakistan seems to only grow, especially through CPEC. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s subordination before the US and other western powers continues. Besides the IMF bondage, this subordination becomes most apparent in the drastic shift in Pakistan’s stance towards Palestine. While Pakistan does not recognise the state of Israel, the caretaker prime minister has openly spoken about how peace could be achieved in the Middle East through a two-state solution, thereby following in the footsteps of his Saudi masters and paving the way for recognising the Zionist entity.
Meanwhile, the state of security around elections is volatile. On January 31, a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-affiliated candidate was shot dead while canvassing in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s Bajaur region. The same day, two other incidents took place in Balochistan: a member of the Awami National Party was killed during the party’s election rally in Chaman while five others were injured in a grenade attack on the Pakistan Peoples Party’s election office in Quetta. Four people were killed and six others injured in a bomb blast at a PTI rally in Balochistan’s Sibi on January 30. Islamic State claimed responsibility. Baloch insurgents’ activity and state repression against them also continues. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is reported to have killed 15 people while the military said on February 2 that 24 “terrorists” belonging to the BLA were killed during firefights and clearance operations in the Mach and Kolpur towns in the past three days. The scale of security challenges in Pakistan can be gauged from the fact that in 2023, there were 1,524 violence-related fatalities and 1,463 injuries from 789 terror attacks and counter-terror operations, including nearly 1,000 fatalities among civilians and security forces personnel. In spite of these challenges, the country plans to go ahead with the election.
Pakistan’s election will also have international implications. Whichever party comes to power will determine the future course the country will take vis-à-vis key questions such as the country’s reliance on imperialist gendarme IMF, neutrality or lack thereof in the Russia-Ukraine war, attitude towards big rivals China and US, approach towards Iran particularly in the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and recognition of the State of Israel. Pakistan could be an important pawn in the increasingly changing global game, especially now that there are reports that the Saudis may go ahead with a military deal with the US ahead of the American presidential elections as long as the Israelis are willing to give verbal assent to the possibility of a two-state solution. Pakistan is one of the few countries that continue to have trade relations with Iran. A pro-US government in Pakistan could be pressured into isolating Iran further to help strengthen the US-Saudi nexus in the region. This would also have implications for Chinese influence in Pakistan and the region.
Meanwhile, with less than a week to the polling day, the mood in Pakistan depicts anything but election season. With a population of 270 million, an estimated 120 million are expected to vote. Yet the masses appear largely unenthusiastic. Parties complain that they do not have enough money to invest in election activities due to rising costs. Attacks on election rallies by non-state actors, crackdown against those who have fallen out of favour (Imran Khan and his party), and a lack of faith in the electoral system on part of the exploited and oppressed masses have also contributed to this dampened spirit.
A large section of those who have faith in the state and its electoral politics are unhappy with the repressive treatment meted out to Khan and his party. In a rushed verdict, an anti-corruption court sentenced Khan for 14 years on charges of illegally selling state gifts on 31st January, just a day after he was jailed for 10 years in another case. This is his third conviction in the last few months. In the last days before the election, he and his wife have been convicted in yet another case for “unlawful marriage”. The court has ruled that their marriage was un-Islamic and illegal as the woman did not fulfil the period of “iddah” after her divorce with her previous husband and married Imran khan before the passage of the stipulated three month period.
The ex-cricket star has also been disqualified from holding public office for 10 years. His party has been stripped of its election symbol and a number of its leaders have been disqualified or their nomination papers rejected. Those who can still contest the elections have to stand as independents. While none of these tactics is new, the scale of repression is unprecedented. The timing of the convictions handed out to Khan also hint towards the fact that the voting population would have polled in favour of his party. Meanwhile, Sharif, also an ex-prime minister, has returned from his luxurious exile in London. He was ousted and disqualified for having fallen out of favour with the military establishment back when Khan enjoyed their support and came to power. Today, Sharif stands as the favoured one, projected to become the next prime minister, with his pile of convictions dumped in the waste paper basket.
All mainstream parties have been dealt similar fates come each election cycle. Yet they never manage to unite against this system. And why should they? After all, their interest lies in sustaining the very system that stands on an almighty military that calls the shots while these national leaders take turns to act as their puppets. Contradictions of the global capitalist system compel them to stand up to their uniformed masters at some point in their terms, which results in what appear to be becoming routine disqualifications and sackings. But make no mistake. Each time a Pakistani national bourgeois stands up to the armed forces, it is because they stand divided on the strategy to defend the interests of a section of Pakistani capitalists. More often than not, these divisions are based on imperialist rivalries. Different sections of Pakistani capital align themselves with different global powers. It is always a question of which section gets their share of the pie by asserting their dominance. Yet, whichever side any given prime minister picks, it has little to no implications for the exploited and oppressed masses. They are bulwarks of neoliberal capitalism and facilitators of imperialist dispossession. The political programme of any mainstream party is practically based on privatisation, austerity, inflation, and downsizing. Particularly the PML-N and PTI are parties of big capital.
Then there are the working class, the peasants and the poor of the country whose lives have only diminished in quality under the crushing heel of the IMF’s diktat that both Nawaz and Khan’s regimes had gladly accepted. These layers have learnt from their experience that the election will not change anything for them. The premise of the election manifesto of the PML-N is how to rule in the interest of big capital by running industries effectively, increasing exports and reducing inflation as a result of this economic development. Bilawal Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party has presented a comparatively better manifesto, but Bhutto revealed its reality by terming it a dream. Every PPP-led government in the past has shown that it is the party of neoliberal capitalism presented in slightly social-democratic jargon.
What is to be done?
The Baloch-populated districts of Punjab and the Balochistan, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa regions have risen against economic and national oppression. The Baloch women, in particular, have spread their elevated consciousness among layers of the Punjabi masses by their tremendously perilous march from Turbat to Islamabad. The uprisings of the oppressed have the potential to inspire resistance across all of Pakistan. All political parties of Pakistan have shown that they are mercenaries of global capitalism. The politics of this system and the ruling classes that run the show are increasingly becoming exposed. All the emperors stand disrobed and rejected. While we oppose the crackdown against the PTI, we do not at the same time have any illusions in this party either.
Therefore, we need a working-class alternative. In every election, the bourgeoisie mobilises the plebeian masses but it also ensures that political power is not shared with them. In this manner, we remain disenfranchised even under so-called democratic elections, which is why privatisations and austerity imposed by the IMF are adopted unquestioned.
While the Labour Qaumi Movement (LQM) could not stand its candidates due to technical problems and legal restrictions, 45 candidates from other left-wing and progressive organisations are contesting elections in different regions. We call upon workers, trade unions, the oppressed and all left-wing, feminist and progressive forces to vote for comrades of the Barabri Party Pakistan, Awami Workers’ Party, Huqooq-e-Khalq Movement, Mazdoor Kissan Party and other workers’ and progressive organisations, whilst not giving any support for their essentially reformist programs. At the same time, we call upon these candidates to take up the following proposals immediately after the elections.
We call upon all working-class organisations and progressive forces to form a united front to prepare and fight against the upcoming attacks of the next government, which will range from the imposition of an anti-working class IMF programme and the continuation of attacks on democratic freedoms to repression of national and religious minorities and deportation of, and discrimination against, refugees. We call upon workers’ organisations to convene a national labour conference to coordinate the struggle against the next capitalist government.
At the same time, we also stress the need for the working class to have a party of its own. We support the steps of the Labour Qaumi Movement in this direction and this needs to be continued with determination. In this direction, we argue for such a party to become a revolutionary party, based on a programme of permanent revolution that can equip class fighters to confront the challenges mounted by capitalism, to unite the struggles of the workers and oppressed and to fight for a workers’ and peasant government, based on workers’ and peasants’ councils and on a workers’ and popular militia, which will expropriate the large scale capital and imperialist companies and introduce an emergency plan to serve the needs of the masses, not the profits of the few.