Martin Suchanek
Donald Trump makes it possible. The exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD have not yet been concluded, but the Merz government, which does not yet formally exist, is already launching the largest rearmament programme in decades. „Whatever it takes“ must now be the guiding principle for the defence budget, according to the CDU leader.
The plans of the CDU/CSU and SPD
In the future, there should be no limits for the latter because anything above one percent of the GDP should no longer fall under the debt brake. Unlimited belligerence, then. According to „arms experts“ and various think tanks, this is to finance a necessary investment of at least 400 billion euros for the Bundeswehr in a few years. CSU leader Söder, speaking for others, rants about „an army of 100,000 drones“, 800 new tanks, 2,000 Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems and 1,000 Taurus cruise missiles.
The future coalition partners now consider the increase in the military budget to at least 3% of GDP to be a done deal, almost a new minimum level. In 2024, total spending was still 71.75 billion euros (51.95 billion from the defence budget and 19.8 billion from the special fund). Now they are expected to rise to 120 to 150 billion in a short period of time.
And that is not nearly enough. The European Union is also abandoning the once sacrosanct restrictions on national debt. 800 billion are to be made available to increase the defence spending of the member states. The prerequisite for this is that in the future, armament must be done in bulk and not in dribs and drabs. „If the member states invest an additional one and a half per cent of their economic output,“ said von der Leyen, according to tagesschau.de, „up to 650 billion euros could be raised for defence spending within four years.“ In addition, a fund of 150 billion euros is to be set up to purchase air and missile defence, artillery systems and ammunition on a large scale.
The gigantic rearmament programme will be supplemented by CDU/CSU and SPD with a no less massive package for investment in German infrastructure. Over the next 10 years, a special fund of 500 billion euros is to be created outside the budget. This sleight of hand does not abolish the sacred debt brake of the CDU/CSU and all neoliberals, but only circumvents it.
The coalition parties never tire of presenting the investment programme as a boon for all. In reality, of course, it supports German capital and its international competitiveness – on the one hand as an economic stimulus package worth billions, and on the other as a renewal of the social capital itself and of the productive forces such as transport, communication and IT infrastructure. The profits of companies and the wealth of the rich, which could also have been used to finance infrastructure spending, are „of course“ not taxed more heavily. Nor should the pressure to cut municipal and social spending that the debt brake brings with it be lifted. On the contrary: while a trillion is being freed up for war and capital, services for refugees and the unemployed, pensions, education, daycare and health are being further cut.
All for German imperialism
Lies, half-truths and fake news have always been part and parcel of the bourgeois political establishment. Shortly before the elections, Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU rejected the SPD and Greens‘ demand to lift the debt brake. Now they themselves are coming up with a programme that will, of course, lead to a massive increase in government debt.
For once, there is a grain of truth in the justification for it all. With the change in the geostrategic orientation of the USA under Trump, the transatlantic partnership and its institutions are themselves up for renegotiation.
In fact, the European imperialist states and the EU are no longer allies of the US, but above all rivals, whose status is being redefined and who can by no means count on preferential treatment vis-à-vis other powers such as Russia. Of course, the US and the dominant European states have always been unequal partners. Even under Biden, there was one leading power and many led powers. But for all their differences, they formed an alliance whose members were usually consulted on important projects and treated as formally equal.
Now Trump seeks to subordinate the states of Western Europe, including their leading imperialist powers, as openly subordinate vassals – and the US administration is actively trying to bring this about. However, this change of course can also lead to the exact opposite of what Trump and his people want to achieve.
His „Make America Great Again“ could be followed by a „Make Europe Independent Again“, a new attempt at the capitalist, imperialist unification of Europe under Franco-German leadership. Since Trump is also questioning the historical relationship with countries such as Great Britain and Canada, new allies could present themselves here. In any case, neither Macron, Merz nor von der Leyen are willing to accept the role assigned to them by the US as second-rate imperialist powers, but are once again trying to get a place in the sun.
Like all powers that fear being left behind in the redivision of the world, the German and French governments and the EU Commission – apart from Orbán (Hungary) and Fico (Slovakia) – justify their own rearmament programme, their own programme to strengthen global competitiveness, their own programme for political, economic and military unification as an act of self-defence against evil.
There is not a grain of truth here in the words of Merz or Klingbeil, Söder or Esken – nor in those of the Greens, who would also like to be at the forefront of rearmament. The entire German media landscape, the entire talk show scene, never tires of shaking us up in this „hour of destiny“ of our democracy, our community of values. Of course, you don’t hear anything about Germany’s economic and geostrategic imperialist interests. Imperialists are only Russia, the USA and China, while in Europe there are only democrats, who must finally stand up for democracy, for the defence of freedom against external, but of course also against internal enemies.
In ideological jargon, this includes the „extremists“ from both the right and the left. The AfD is attacked as a party of Putin-Trump-like traitors to the fatherland, while the Left Party is alternately ensnared – and not without success when it comes to government socialists like Ramelow and Gysi – and condemned as naive idiots, at best, when they refuse to agree to the rearmament.
In order to exclude all democratic imponderables in the „defence of freedom“, one must not, of course, be held back by constitutional hurdles. Since the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens do not have a two-thirds majority in the newly elected but not yet constituted Bundestag and thus cannot decide on any constitutional amendments without the AfD or the Left Party, the old parliament is supposed to quickly wave through any restriction on defence spending and a special fund of 500 billion.
The Greens have expressed reservations about this approach, but for the Fatherland they are, of course, also willing to talk. The rearmament programme is unlikely to fail due to parliamentary hurdles, just as Hungary and Slovakia will not be able to permanently prevent the EU’s 800 billion programme. On the contrary: Merz, Pistorius and Co. can be sure of the recognition of the published, bourgeois opinion, because – as has been explained to us for days in news programmes and talk shows – if you want to be successful against autocrats like Trump and Putin, you too must be as unscrupulous, you must not let democratic hurdles slow you down.
The whole thing is accompanied by an ideological barrage that presents Germany as a victim of world powers. Russia’s reactionary war against Ukraine and the reactionary deal that Trump wants to push through in coordination with Putin provide a narrative that presents Germany, the EU and their allies as the last remaining fighters for freedom, democracy and self-determination. There is no doubt that Ukraine has the right to defend itself against the Russian invasion (and it also has the right to procure the means to do so). However, just as the US under Biden is not concerned with the right of self-determination and the independence of the country, Germany or the EU are not concerned with their support for Ukraine, but rather with not coming off badly in the division of a semi-colony between Russia, the US and the EU powers. Ultimately, they don’t want to know anything about Ukraine’s real independence, but rather that a large part of the agricultural economy falls under German and EU control. Of course, Ukraine’s debts are not to be forgiven, but are to serve as leverage to squeeze the country economically in „peacetime“ as well.
The main enemy is at home
Above all, this is about preparing for the next confrontation. Whatever form a possible ceasefire in Ukraine takes, it will not bring peace. And not only because it will be a predatory peace in favour of Russia, but also because the front against Russia at the NATO border is to be massively rearmed in any case, including with combat units of the Bundeswehr, whether now in NATO or at some point under a different alliance (e.g. a possible European army). Furthermore, there is the threat of nuclear rearmament in Europe, as there is talk of a „European protective shield“ that would be independent of the USA.
Germany and the EU will not only support the existing arms industry, but will also build up capacities and capabilities (and thus arms companies) that are currently provided by the USA within the framework of NATO. Finally, of course, it is also about expanding the Bundeswehr with more soldiers: the reintroduction of compulsory military service or compulsory service for the state.
This entire programme is justified by the claim that „our“ democracy, „our“ values, „our“ freedom, „our“ state are under threat. There is no denying that German capitalism, its state and its system of rule are in brutal competition with other imperialist powers. But, for us, whatever the prevailing bourgeois public opinion, the SPD, the trade unions and ultimately even the Left Party, would have us believe, this state and its values are not ours. It is the state of German imperialist capital, which glorifies its interests, its values, its democracy, its freedom as „ours“. And the main thing is that we – we wage-dependent – work hard for their profits, their companies, their foreign interventions, their war, in short, their class interests. There is no doubt that Trump or Putin pursue the interests of their imperialist states with a reactionary, bloody, predatory zeal, whether in Ukraine or in supporting the genocide in Palestine. But, as we know from the unconditional support of Israel as a matter of German state policy, or from the murderous fortress Europe programme, „our“ ruling class is no stranger to barbaric zeal either. Above all, however, we will not be able to consistently resist the rearmament programme of the incoming government, which is nothing more than a programme of preparation for war, if we do not clearly recognise that our main enemy is at home.