Valentin Lambert/Susanne Kühn
The result of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, two East German states, are not a surprise. But they are another very serious warning to the German working class and the left. The result in Thuringia is as follows: the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD): 32.8 % (+9.4), the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 23.6 % (+1.9), Sahra Wagenknecht’s new populist BSW (Bewegung Sahra Wagenknecht = Movement Sahra Wagenknecht) 15.8 % (+15.8), The Left Party DIE LINKE 13.1 % (-17.9), the Social Democratic Party (SPD) 6.1 % (-2.1), Greens 3.2 % (-2.0) and the liberal FDP 1.1 % (-3.9). In Saxony, the result is as follows: CDU: 31.9 % (-0.2 %), AfD: 30.6 % (+3.1 %), BSW 11.8 % (+11.8), SPD 7.3 % (-0.4), Greens 5.1 % (-3.5), DIE LINKE 4.5 % (-5.9), FPD is at 0.9 % (-3,6).
Three election winners
There are three election winners in both states. Firstly, of course, the AfD, which became the strongest party in Thuringia and came second in Saxony. In both states, it was able to mobilise previous non-voters in particular. Racism and right-wing populism are clearly not deterring anyone, on the contrary: they have long been acceptable in both federal states.
The majority of the AfD voters are not just protest voters anymore, the far right party has actually established a significant social base. This is even more alarming as in Thuringia and Saxony, the most right wing, semi-fascist elements like Björn Höcke dominate the party and will further increase their national influence. Moreover, the AfD’s voter base does not only include petit-bourgeois and domestic market orientated small business, it has now become the strongest party amongst blue collar workers and the youth!
Secondly, the CDU was able to hold its own in both states and even made slight gains in Thuringia. It will probably be able to lead the government in both states in the future and continue to gather momentum for the federal elections. Its only drawback is that it will not be able to avoid the participation of the BSW in government in both states.
In Thuringia, even a CDU-BSW-SPD government will only have 44 out of 88 seats in the parliament and can be blocked by the opposition on any law. On the other hand, it may well be possible for such a government to make deals with DIE LINKE, or even with the AfD. At least the CDU and the BSW might be prepared for that on some questions.
Thirdly, the BSW, has a good chance of entering the government as a coalition partner of the conservatives in both states. The political willingness of Wagenknecht and Co. is not lacking, as initial interviews on election night showed. Even though these negotiations will be difficult on the Ukraine war, where Wagenknecht effectively holds a pro-Russian campist position, there is a lot of agreement with the conservatives and the SPD on the call for even tighter immigration laws and strengthening of “law and order”.
The losers
The losers are just as clear. As in 2019, the SPD remained below the 10 per cent mark in both states. The Greens just managed to enter the state parliament in Saxony but will no longer be represented in Thuringia. The only pleasing result from a left-wing perspective in these elections was the devastating performance of the FDP, which only achieved around one per cent. DIE LINKE suffered the expected disaster. In both states, it lost more than half of its voters in absolute terms and around two thirds of its share of the electorate.
What does the result mean?
Beyond the two federal states, the result also has a major significance for national politics.
The shift to the right and referendum in favour of racism
The results not only consolidate the nationwide shift to the right in recent years. After the murders in Solingen, a veritable wave of racist hysteria and agitation swept through the country, resulting in further restrictions on asylum rights, tighter border controls and easier deportations. Just two days before the elections, the federal government agreed on new restrictions on asylum and new security laws.
At large public events like sports competitions or festivals, there shall be an absolute ban on carrying knives, the same could be extended to so-called “crime-ridden locations” like train stations or bus terminals. Secondly, surveillance of (supposed) Islamists and “terrorists” shall be extended. Thirdly, there will be cuts in financial and social support for migrants who entered the EU via another state. In future, these states should be forced to take those migrants back and pay for their housing and minimum income. Finally, refugees will be deported back to countries like Afghanistan and Syria.
Whilst the conservative CDU/CSU, the AfD and the BSW support those measures and do not fail to point out that the government took up some of their demands, they want more. The AfD wants a full blown racist programme to force millions out of Germany. The CDU/CSU, and the two other parties, demand permanent immigration controls and push backs at the borders, de facto a suspension and negotiation of the Schengen agreements.
The results in Thuringia and Saxony also represent a kind of racist plebiscite, in which only parties that attack the coalition government from the right on the issues of migration and refugees were able to win. The losses of the governing parties SPD, Greens and FDP, which have repeatedly taken up the racist demands of the right in recent years, make it clear that such accommodation to the AfD and CDU (and more recently also the BSW) is of no use. Racist voters always prefer to vote for the right-wing or conservative original rather than the green-liberal-social democratic copy.
Punishing the federal government
There is, however, another reason for the losses of the governing parties: the policies of the national government itself. Even during the election campaign, state policy content increasingly gave way to debates about the failings of the coalition government in terms of federal policy.
The so-called “progressive” coalition has positioned German imperialism as a strong supporter and ally of the US in the new cold war against Russia and China. It has increased military spending massively, including a 100 billion euro extra-budgetary package for the army. At the same time, inflation has undercut wages, unemployment benefits and pensions. The health services, education and welfare are underfinanced and face further cuts due to budget restraints. The not so radical “green new deal” for the environment has been sacrificed to the interests of German large scale capital. And finally, the government – and German imperialism as such – is divided over its future global strategy and how to solve the crisis of the EU.
In this situation, the CDU/CSU are preparing to take over the government at the next election. The AfD is benefiting from the ongoing crisis, the global centres of conflict and the social attacks on the working class, presenting itself as a pseudo-radical, nationalist and extremely chauvinist pseudo-opposition. The BSW is trying to build itself up as a populist, “left-conservative”, nationally centred, more rational social-chauvinist alternative.
The situation in the eastern German states
The losses for the governing parties are certainly not undeserved. They have defended the miserable status quo in the state governments and have remained inactive during the decline of entire regions. They govern as „administrators“ of the largely deindustrialised East, whose population continues to migrate. To this day, working hours here are longer, with lower salaries and pensions than in the West. Rural regions in particular are not only suffering from emigration, but are also being left behind in terms of infrastructure development. The chosen locations for industrial production and logistics tend to represent commercial islands in a disadvantaged region rather than „blossoming landscapes“.
The further „fragmentation“ of the current party system is particularly evident in the East German parliaments. The SPD, but also DIE LINKE, are losing their mass base or have long since done so. The CDU is also affected by this process, even if it was able to assert itself ostensibly as a „people’s party“ in the elections.
It is no coincidence that this process is more pronounced in the East because there is a weaker capitalist class there and the petit bourgeois and middle classes represent a less stable milieu that has not been able to develop as much trust in „their“ state and „their“ parties as in the West. This makes the AfD’s right-wing populism all the more effective here. It is also fuelled by the disappointment and frustration with the policies of the SPD and the Left Party among politically backward working-class groups, for whom the Greens appear less of an alternative than in the West.
In the current situation, the more unstable voter base of the „established“ parties benefits not only the AfD, but also the „left-wing conservative“ BSW. The AfD has undoubtedly consolidated a stable social base. The next few years will show whether BSW’s successes will last or whether it will turn out to be a political flash in the pan in view of its probable participation in government as the CDU’s junior partner.
DIE LINKE – a debacle
The Left Party enters the Thuringian state parliament with massive losses. In Saxony, it remains well below the 5% threshold, even though it has entered the state parliament thanks to two direct mandates won in Leipzig. One mandate was gained by Juliane Nagel, from the right wing of the party with 36.5%, the other by Nam Duy Nguyen, a supporter of Marx21 (one of the three Cliffite organisations in Germany), with 39.8%.
These results, however, are no reason for complacency. Leipzig has traditionally been a stronghold of the left in Saxony and the fact that the party just made it into the state parliament should not prevent us recognising the electoral debacle for DIE LINKE. It has no convincing answer to many issues such as climate change, rearmament, social cuts, the care crisis, educational misery.
On the Gaza and Ukraine wars, it confines itself to pacifist answers at best. On the question of racism, while it rejects the new laws and defends the right to asylum, as on most other issues, it does not mobilise its members and voters in opposition to these attacks.
In short, it does not represent a radical alternative or even an opposition to capital for the masses, even though its voters in both Saxony and Thuringia represent the most politically aware layers of the working class and youth who, subjectively, seriously want to oppose the right-wing pressure. The disaster of DIE LINKE is made even more dramatic by the lack of any viable, mass alternative on the left developing in either Saxony or Thuringia.
The fight against the right means class struggle
Regardless of the outcome of the government formation in Thuringia and Saxony, we will face a further shift to the right in both states in the coming years, including open racism on the streets and attacks not only on migrants, but also anti-racists and anti-fascists.
If you really want to make a difference, you have to be prepared to fight for serious change – including against the government and capital. Those who speak of the “firewall” against the right and racism must therefore not remain silent about the cause of the shift to the right and must take a clear class standpoint.
In order to actually change the current balance of power, active members of all working class and immigrant organisations, including the unions, DIE LINKE or even the SPD, must be called upon and supported to organise meetings and information events to mobilise in their workplaces, schools and universities and to actively lead the debate on racism and the economic crisis that fuels it. Demonstrations – such as the mobilisation against the AfD party conference in Essen earlier this year – can be used as a starting point. However, the aim must be to build up action committees in the course of this.
Clear demands are needed in order to present a clear profile. Even if it is the economic crisis that is giving the right wing a boost, we should not believe that it is enough to limit ourselves to improvements at this level. For joint action we propose the following demands:
- No to all racist laws! Stop all deportations! Open borders and full citizenship rights for all who live here!
- Joint fight against the social roots of fascism and racism!
- Joint fight against inflation, low wages, poverty and housing shortages!
- Minimum wage of 15 euros/hour, minimum pension and unemployment benefit of 1,600 euros/month for all!
- Hundreds of billions for education, the environment, pensions and health instead of armament – financed by taxing the rich!
Furthermore, it is the task of revolutionaries to fight for democratically organised self-defence against racist attacks to be put on the agenda. The threats against refugees’ homes, immigrants, but now also regular attacks on left politicians during election campaigns, show that this is not a foolhardy fantasy, but a bitter necessity if left-wing politics are actually to be taken to the streets – especially in rural areas and in the east of the republic.
Perspective
These demands must not only be put forward, they must also be actively fought for. At the moment, however, the trade unions are part of the problem. Their leaderships are closely interwoven with the SPD and the Left Party in terms of personnel and continue to cover up their policies for the self-preservation of their bureaucratic apparatus.
The SPD officials in the unions continue to support the federal government even now. This must stop! If we want to win the fight against the right, we must ensure that they no longer participate in the social partnership-based management of the crisis! Instead, they must fight for real improvements, against austerity policies and social cuts and actively combine this fight with the fight against racism.
This also means standing up for the integration of refugees into the trade unions and openly speaking out against all deportations and agreements that maintain Fortress Europe, or not shying away from putting expropriation under workers‘ control on the agenda as a perspective when we are told that unfortunately there is no money for social spending. A movement raising these demands will not just fall from the sky, it has to be fought for in practice. For this, we need a conscious political force, a revolutionary party, that fights for such a perspective and for a programme that is not only directed against the extreme right and the attacks of the bourgeois governments, but also against the system that breeds racism.