Twice over the last year Jacques Chirac has been able to convince the French working class to support him over decisive issues.
First, in April 2002 he managed to con the vast majority of French workers and youth to vote for him in the second round of the Presidential election faced with the apparent only alternative of voting for the fascist Le Pen.
Then, more recently, his opposition to the war in Iraq, based entirely on French imperialismâs jockeying for position on an international scale and its determination to create an EU superpower, rather than any principled anti-war position, has brought hundreds of thousands of people onto the street in support, and has sent his opinion poll ratings soaring.
However, there are very real signs that the working class may be beginning to see through Chirac’s posturing.
In 1995, no sooner had Chirac been elected than he provoked a massive strike wave by his determination to push through a series of ãreformsä (in fact attacks) against both pensions and the health system.
With the country verging on a general strike, Chirac backed down on the attack against the railway workers ö the spearhead of the movement ö but maintained his offensive against the health system.
The end result was a score-draw, but both Chiracâs government and the subsequent socialist government under Prime Minister Jospin refused to take on the working class over pensions a second time.
With a massive majority in parliament, able to claim the support of 80% of the electorate at last yearâs presidential election and with a four-year pause before the next decisive elections, Chirac is now prepared to take on the working class over the key questions of pensions.
Chiracâs main target is the massive state sector (2.3 million workers).
Under a previous right-wing government, private sector workers saw the period they had to work before being able to retire go up from 37.5 years to 40 years. Chirac wants to inflict the same defeat on the public sector, and workers are understandably extremely hostile.
At the same time, the government is refusing any wage increase in the public sector (which with inflation therefore amounts to a cut in real wages) and is opposed to any inclusion in final pension levels of the multifarious bonuses that make up an important part of many public sector salaries.
And things are even worse on the jobs front: in 2003, 54000 state employees will retire and 1089 posts will be eliminated. By 2012, 40% of current state employees will have retired.
This means that the pensions issue is absolutely fundamental to millions of workers, and they are prepared to fight back. Although the government is wisely waiting before attacking the powerful railway workers, the rest of the public sector is clearly in the firing line.
That explains the hostility expressed on the streets of cities throughout the country last Thursday, as hundreds of thousands of public sector workers protested against Chiracâs plans. As in 1995, public transport workers ö in particular the Metro and the railways ö were at the forefront of the mobilization as the country was effectively brought to a halt on a fine spring day.
And France being France, the demonstrations had the overwhelming support of the population ö up to 78% according to some opinion polls.
However, it will take more than a day of action to shake Chiracâs determination. This is a key issue for French capitalism, because it will determine its relative profitability for the decades to come.
As the world economy slows, the French bosses need every Euro they can get, and they intend to take them from the French workers. It will take even more than the spirit of 1995 to beat them back. Nothing short of a general strike will be able to stop the bosses in their tracks.