The scale of the victory was unexpected, not least by the victor and the vanquished. Evo Morales gained 51% of the popular vote in Bolivia’s presidential election on 18 December – the first indigenous person to accede to the office of president in the whole of Latin America.. His chief right-wing opponent Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, – shocked and disoriented by his miserly 31% of the vote– immediately conceded defeat.
It was commonly thought that Morales would gain most votes but less than an absolute majority; this would mean the battle to be elected would have turned to Congress in the new year when the right-wing majority of senators would get their chance to overturn the voters’ preferences in case of a close vote and select the right-wing candidate instead.
But this is now not possible. Evo is president. But the scale of the win may not prove to his liking. He will find it harder to resist the masses’ demands for immediate nationalisation of the hydrocarbon sector without compensation. Morales and the MAS party he leads were opposed to nationalisation of any kind until the mass uprising earlier this year forced him to concede to the demand; but he still insists that this must be negotiated with the imperialist companies.
When Congress convenes Morales is likely to find that his MAS has a minority of seats and the right-wing a majority; moreover there will be a clear majority of right-wing governors, now with more regional autonomy than before. This is a powerful force for obstruction. Like Chavez in Venezuela when he won the presidency in 1998 for the first time, Morales may find himself surrounded by officials from a state machine, a judiciary and Congress that will do all it can to thwart his measures.
But there will be timidity and caution from within the ranks of the MAS. Many activists in the unions and community organisations that provided the backbone to the uprisings of the last few years, are sceptical of many of the new senators in the MAS, whom are regarded as not representatives of their struggles or communities at best, at worst careerists. Like Lula’s PT after his presidential win in Brazil in 2003, the MAS may prove a less radical vehicle than many who voted for it had hoped or expected.
As in Venezuela in 1999, it may be that 2006 in Bolivia proves to be a war of position, as Morales and the MAS prepare for the convening of a promised Constituent Assembly in July. This could and should rip up the present constitution and lay the basis for tearing up 25 years of neo-liberal destruction of the country, confiscate the property of the big bosses and landowners, and expropriate the privatised industries.
Certainly the mass movement that brought down president Carlos Mesa this year will expect Morales to deliver soon, or he too will face a rebellion from below. The union federation the COB and the mass neighbourhood committees’ organisation – FEJUVE – have promised to start taking to the streets if Morales is too conciliatory. The COB contemplated boycotting the elections after failing to get their candidates onto the MAS list for Congress; the FEJUVE did argue for a vote for Morales but were very clear that they had little time for many of the MAS Congress candidates.
At a meeting in El Alto ten days before the election a joint COR-COB-FSTMB conference, explained signed a unity pact that put an end the truce in mobilisations since the end of the May-June uprising.
“Beginning December and January this truce will be lifted and we intended to once again begin to mobilise in favour of the nationalisation of the hydrocarbons, no matter which government comes in, be they from the left or right”, said a spokesperson.
Between December 3-5, El Alto was also the site for the First National Congress in Defence of Water, Basic Services and Life, which FEJUVE and the Coalition in Defence of Water and Life from Cochabamba, headed by Oscar Olivera, were the main forces in organising.
The conference declared: “We are convinced that whoever wins will have to prioritise, and act on, what the population is proposing.”
The election is over. Morales is in office, but now the real struggle for power begins.