Martin Suchanek
„Whatever it takes”, the words of Mario Draghi when asked about the scale of measures to save the euro, now apply to the European Union itself, at least for the overwhelming majority of its governments. The confederation is setting out to mobilise 800 billion euros in various forms by 2030 in addition to the existing expenditures of the individual states. According to the FDFA (European Defence Agency), their combined defence spending reached a record level of 326 billion (1.9% of EU GDP) as early as 2024. Since 2021, spending has increased by a remarkable 31%.
Obviously, it is not only the USA, Russia and China that are arming themselves, but also the „ailing“ EU, whose total spending on the military and armaments has actually exceeded Russia’s for years. There is no question that the latter’s defence budget has risen even more and is expected to amount to 121 billion euros in 2025, i.e. around 32.5% of the budget. In view of the conversion to a war economy, the „security“ of the country now accounts for around 40% of economic output, income and expenditure.
The Present State
Of course, if one listens to the EU leaders and above all those of the Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD, who are now completely focussed on re-equipment and war capability, one might think that Germany and the EU are militarily totally on the ground. If equipment and material and stocks are so completely run down, however, the question arises as to why German and European armaments are in such demand, not only in Ukraine, why half the world wants the Leopard 2 tanks or Taurus rockets, certainly they are not all just junk.
Even a comparison of NATO and Russia’s defence spending does not prove the thesis of total neglect of the armies in recent years. In 2023, NATO countries spent US$1,341 billion on defence. Of this, 916 billion was allocated to the United States, while Russia’s defence budget was only $109 billion. But, according to the supporters of the latest rearmament programmes, appearances are deceptive. For example, the IPG Journal (Journal für Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft) calculates that the ratio will no longer be 12:1 in favour of NATO, but only 4:1 if expenditure is not converted according to purchasing power parities. If you also exclude the USA, it is only 2:1.
Alarm bells were ringing in Brussels, especially since the EU could no longer rely on the US, and the „transatlantic partnership“ has effectively been shelved under Trump. „We are in an era of rearmament“ announces Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – and Europe must finally be at the forefront again. 800 billion are being provided by the EU for this purpose – and almost everyone is participating. Cheap loans are to be made available for the more indebted countries such as Italy, France and Spain. The question is „only“ how much exactly. The EU is to become fully ready for war by 2030 and, if necessary, to be able to assert its political and economic interests, even without the USA.
A reactionary pacification of Ukraine, which is emerging under the dictates of Russia and the USA and which would include the essential parts of the Russian imperialist conquests, would therefore only be a transitional stage for the EU. After all, they also want to play a part in the redivision of Ukraine – and are arming themselves vigorously against the current and future main enemy, Russia. The new Cold War intensifies the arms race – and with it the danger of war, which is supposedly to be averted by the war capability of Germany and the EU.
White paper
The EU Commission’s White Paper („White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2023“), published in recent days, summarises the future guidelines on 23 pages. In the introductory chapter, the changes in the strategic situation are noted. Russia certainly, but also the rise of China, are seen as strategic threats. In addition, there is instability in other regions such as Africa and the Middle East, as well as the challenges posed by hybrid threats, the technology race in the economy and armaments, and the need to secure critical raw materials. And so the goals – by no means „only“ vis-à-vis Russia – are also defined:
„In a harsher world of hyper-competitive and transactional geopolitics that spans various theatres, the EU must be able to effectively meet any challenge and respond to even the most extreme military contingencies, such as armed aggression.“
In other words, Europe itself must become a global player in political and military terms. To do this it must become „independent“ and ready for war – and not only against Russia, but all over the world. All this includes massive procurement programmes for armaments and, of course, European industry should benefit first and foremost from this. In order to be independent of the USA and no longer dependent on its logistical support, research and development in the high-tech sector would also have to be boosted, so that Europe could also come up with its own satellite guidance systems and, if necessary, a French nuclear umbrella extended to neighbouring countries.
The armies of the EU states and their close allies such as Britain are to remain under their respective national commands, at least for the time being, but their equipment and procurement are to be standardised. In this way, costs are to be reduced and at the same time the emergence of European arms companies is to be massively accelerated, as billions in business are guaranteed for years. By 2030, the „war capability“ is to be fully established, but the rearmament is by no means over, after all, it will not be stopped by other powers.
There is also a certain diplomatic note to the entire paper. The White Paper is largely silent about the relationship with the „new“ rival, the USA, as it does not want to risk too open a conflict with the former protecting power at the moment. In section 8, for example, the importance of NATO as the „cornerstone of European defence“ is once again invoked. But only a few lines later, the search is on for close bilateral allies of the EU. These include NATO countries such as Great Britain, Canada, Norway and even Turkey, as well as Switzerland, Albania, Iceland, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Moldova. In addition, possibilities of military cooperation with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and India are to be examined. „Only“ the USA is sought in vain. In this spirit, the paper ends with the chapter „The way forward for European defence“. At the end, it proclaims: „Europe must make courageous decisions and build a defence union that secures peace on our continent through unity and strength.“
Peacekeeping as a phrase
Like any other imperialist alliance, the EU is not lacking in phrases to present its own equipment and war capability as a means of securing peace, when in reality, of course, it is only a matter of asserting its own interests in the struggle for the redivision of the world. And that is what the EU wants. Therefore, the White Paper not only contains a plan for equipment, which is glossed over as „retrofitting“. It also contains a plan for the preparation of a separate European army, albeit currently still under the umbrella of NATO.
This ambition is not new, and of course it may fail again because of the internal contradictions of European capitalist unification. But no one should underestimate the renewed attempt at a united imperialist Europe, to deepen a bloc that is also militarily fighting for global dominance on an equal footing with the USA, China and Russia. In any case, this is the strategic goal of the EU Commission as well as of the leading imperialist powers, including the incoming German government. To this end, the „certainties“ of the German government and the EU, such as the restrictive debt policy, thought to be set in stone, are being thrown overboard – and this is because it itself represents an obstacle to the pursuit of reactionary, long-term capital interests.
This entire programme is justified by the fact that „our“ democracy, „our“ values, „our“ freedom, „our“ state are threatened. There is no denying that the EU is in brutal competition with other imperialist powers. But neither the EU nor the nation states that constitute it are „ours“. They do not defend „our“ interests, values, democracy or freedom. They defend the values, interests, domination and freedom of capital. And it is above all a matter of us – we wage earners – working hard for their profits, their companies, their foreign interventions, their war, in short, their class interests.
Therefore: No to the (re)armament of Europe, no to the rearmament of the Bundeswehr! No to „democratic“